Syria: Spillover and tragedy of the war

A recent World Bank study on the economic and social losses ensuing from the war in Syria up to early 2017[i] showed that the conflict had claimed huge numbers of lives and caused the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands reaching to more than half of the population. The aggregate losses in the GDP for the period 2011-2016 amounted to almost $US 226 billion, around four times the GDP in 2010, knowing that production factors were destroyed, the economic activity was paralyzed and communication means within the country were largely disrupted as well as the import and export chains. The war has also inflicted huge damages to the physical capital given that 7% of dwellings were destroyed while 20% of them were damaged.

The main problem lies in the fact that the conflict became protracted with no clear or known outcome, which renders recovery even more difficult. With the conflict still raging, the social and economic consequences will further deteriorate as migration will continue. Indeed, more the war lasts, grievances and divisions will deepen in the Syrian society and recovery would become slower and harder to achieve.

 

Economic growth since 2011

 

Source: World Bank, The Toll of war: The Economic & Social Consequences of the Conflict in Syria

Syria’s ranking in the World Bank indicators for ease of doing business for 2017 among 190 countries

 

Source: World Bank Doing Business 2017